Italian and Spanish tourists will come to UK to cool off, says new Defra report on climate change

Global warming may lead to a boom in British tourism by 2050 – as millions of Italians and Spanish come to the UK to escape roasting temperatures at home.

So suggests the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs’s (Defra) Climate Change Risk Assessment, a 2000-page report published this week.

But the report warns that up to 7 per cent of the UK’s total beach area may be lost due to rises in sea level by the 2080s – and adds that 33,000 tourist and leisure facilities in England and Wales alone are within areas that could be affected by a tidal or river flood.

Defra scientists were analyzing the full risks to and opportunities for the UK of predicted climate change, including a rise in average summer temperatures of 3-4 degrees.

A milder climate may also change the face of agriculture in the UK, with new crops such as blueberries, maize and soya becoming tenable. Yields of existing crops, such as wheat, may increase by as much as 140 per cent by the 2050s.

While some of the side-effects of the predicted growth in greenhouse gases may prove to be positive, many of the report’s predictions are more concerned with preparing for new threats to everyday life.

Bob Watson, Defra's chief scientist, said: “Flooding will become increasingly more severe almost immediately.”

By the 2050s the number of homes facing a “significant likelihood” of flooding will increase from 560,000 to between 1.3 million and 3.6 million.

By the 2080s, without intervention, rivers may flood twice or even four times as often.

However, the milder UK temperature would lead to a substantial decrease in premature deaths due to cold winters, by the 2050s, said the report – in the UK, more lives would be saved by the warmer temperatures than would be lost as a direct consequence of increased heat.

The report’s estimates, based on computer models, are cautious, with Defra’s summary admitting: “A number of the emerging risks examined are potentially very significant, but our current level of knowledge means that there are also large uncertainties.”

It is the first time the government has produced a full risk assessment report on climate change.

Photo (istockphoto.com): Brighton Beach prepares for a new rush of over-heated Spanish and Italian tourists